IonoFlux field guide
Path reliability
How IonoFlux estimates HF path reliability and what the percentage means.
In simple terms
Reliability is a model estimate, not a promise. It combines ionosphere conditions, path geometry, signal-to-noise assumptions and real reception evidence when available.
How to read it
Use it to compare bands and hours. Confidence tells you how much supporting data the model has; a high reliability with low confidence still deserves caution.
A practical example
A 75% result means the model sees favorable conditions in similar situations, not that three out of four of your next four calls must succeed. Antenna, power and local noise can change the outcome.